Make permit risk a number on the term sheet.
For any construction loan: timeline forecast, approval risk, variance probability, inspection-failure tendency. Sourced from actual board decisions, actual review-comment patterns, actual municipality behavior — with the evidence chain to back every score.
Delay is the most expensive line item nobody prices.
An additional 60 days of approval timeline can move a deal from underwriting to default. Interest reserve burns. Contractor schedules slip. Borrowers re-trade. Today, lenders price this with a flat contingency. We give you a calibrated number.
For the address + project type, an explicit probability that the borrower clears entitlement and building approval, with a windowed timeline.
Mapped to your interest reserve assumption. If timelines slip to the 90th percentile of comparable projects, what is the financial impact?
If the project requires a parking, density, or use variance: probability of approval, expected hearing cycles, conditions likely to be imposed.
Likelihood of failed or delayed inspections in this town and this trade group. Tracks contractor history when available.
Same project across multiple towns under consideration. Compare median review days, first-pass rate, variance approval rate, recent drift.
For each risk score: the comparable cases, the source documents, the confidence, the data freshness. Defensible in committee.
Every score is calibrated against an outcome.
Predictions only matter if you can grade them. We log every prediction. We compare it to the actual outcome when it arrives. Confidence is updated based on real performance, not aspiration. The system improves on every approval.
- ✓API access. Wire risk scores into your origination workflow. One request per loan; bulk endpoints for portfolio review.
- ✓Per-municipality confidence. A score from a well-modeled town comes with high confidence. A score from a thin-data town tells you so explicitly. No false precision.
- ✓Evidence chain. Every prediction returns the comparable cases, the source documents, and the per-field confidence. The audit committee can verify any claim.
- ✓Outcome feedback loop. When you eventually fund and the deal closes (or doesn’t), the model updates. Predictions become measurably better with every loan you run through us.
Talk to us about API access.
Construction-loan, builder’s risk, and PE underwriting teams get priority onboarding. Run a pilot against historical deals to see the calibration. Decide from there.